基于信息量耦合卷积神经网络的黄土高原滑坡灾害空间分布与易发性评价——以河南省济源市为例

    SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION AND SUSCEPTIBILITY EVALUATION OF LANDSLIDE DISASTERS IN LOESS PLATEAU BASED ON INFORMATION-CNN COUPLING MODEL: A Case Study of Jiyuan City in Henan Province

    • 摘要: 通过野外调查和资料收集, 选择地形地貌、基础地质、气象水文、人类活动、岩土体性质以及植被覆盖共计18个影响因子, 基于信息量模型和卷积神经网络模型构建耦合模型对河南省济源市开展滑坡易发性评价研究, 利用GIS空间分析量化了滑坡空间分布特征. 结果表明, 研究区滑坡灾害整体呈聚集分布, 具有多个核密度高值中心; 滑坡极低、低、中、高和极高易发性区面积占比分别为45.04%、34.58%、8.67%、9.12%和2.57%. 极高和高易发区主要特征为断层发育、地质环境脆弱以及水力侵蚀. 中易发区滑坡密度最高, 为0.804个/km2. ROC曲线和AUC值表明评价结果准确性较好, 耦合模型预测能力具有可靠性. 滑坡影响因子敏感度分析前五位分别为距道路距离、距断层距离、坡向、地形粗糙度以及侵蚀程度和类型. 本研究可为黄土高原城镇滑坡地质灾害的预测和防治工作提供科学依据.

       

      Abstract: Through field survey and data collection, 18 influencing factors involving landform, geology, hydrometeorology, human activities, rock-soil mass properties and vegetation coverage are selected to evaluate the landslide vulnerability in Jiyuan City of Henan Province on the basis of information-convolutional neural network (CNN) coupling model, with GIS spatial analysis to quantify the spatial distribution characteristics of landslide. The results show that the landslide disasters are distributed aggregately in the area, with multiple high value centers of kernel density. The areas with very low, low, medium, high and very high landslide susceptibility account for 45.04%, 34.58%, 8.67%, 9.12% and 2.57%, respectively. The very high and high susceptible areas are characterized by developed faults, fragile geological environment and hydraulic erosion. The highest landslide density is 0.804 per km2, occurring in medium susceptible area. The ROC curve and AUC value indicate that the evaluation results have good accuracy, and the prediction ability of the coupling model is reliable. The top 5 influencing factors of landslide susceptibility analysis are distance from roads, distance from faults, slope aspect, terrain roughness, as well as erosion degree and type. This study may provide scientific basis for the prediction and prevention of landslide geological disasters in cities and towns on the Loess Plateau.

       

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