资源型城市土地利用时空演变格局及驱动力分析——以辽宁省鞍山市为例

    Spatiotemporal evolution pattern and driving force of land use in resource-based cities: A case study of Anshan City, Liaoning Province

    • 摘要: 基于2000年、2010年和2020年3期土地利用/覆盖数据,综合运用土地利用动态度、地学信息图谱、弦图可视化和PLUS模型等方法,分析鞍山市2000-2020年土地利用时空演变特征及驱动力,并预测了鞍山市2040年土地利用格局. 结果表明:2000-2020年间,鞍山市耕地面积呈持续减少趋势,近20年共减少了496.10 km2,主要转出至林地、建设用地和草地. 林地呈持续增加趋势,近20年共增加了410.86 km2,主要转入自耕地和草地. 近20年来,鞍山市最主要的土地利用变化图谱有"耕地→林地"和"耕地→建设用地",其中前者主要分布于海城市东南部-千山区一带,后者主要分布于千山区、海城市中部和台安县中部等地. 2000年以来,鞍山市土地利用变化速度为先快后慢,第一个10年综合土地利用动态度为1.29%,第二个10年其值为2.84%. 单地类来看,20年间增长最快的是建设用地,平均每年增加0.87%;减少最快的是耕地,平均每年减少0.60%. 模拟预测结果显示,2040年鞍山市耕地将进一步减少,驱动鞍山市耕地减少的主要因素有高程、降水量、气温等,其次为人口、GDP、到铁路和地方行政中心距离等社会经济因素.

       

      Abstract: Based on land use/cover data for the years of 2000, 2010, and 2020, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving forces of land use in Anshan City during 2000-2020 and predicts the land use pattern in 2040 by ways of land use dynamic degree, geo-information maps, chord diagram visualization and PLUS model. The results show that the area of cultivated land continuously decreased, with a total reduction of 496.10 km2 during 2000-2020, primarily converted to forest, construction and grass lands. Forest land increased 410.86 km2 during the same period, mainly transferred from cultivated and grass lands. The most significant land use change in recent 20 years behaves as cultivated land → forest land and cultivated land → construction land, with the former predominantly distributed in the southeastern Haicheng City and Qianshan District, and the latter concentrated in Qianshan District, central Haicheng City, and central Tai'an County. Since 2000, the land use change rate has showed a fast-slow temporal pattern, with a comprehensive land use dynamic degree of 1.29% in the first decade and 2.84% in the second decade. In terms of single land type, construction land shows the fastest growth rate at 0.87% annually, while cultivated land experiences the most rapid decline at 0.60% per year over the 20-year span. The simulation prediction results indicate further reduction of cultivated land in Anshan City by 2040 due to the main driving factors of elevation, precipitation and temperature, followed by socioeconomic factors including population, GDP, and distances from railways and local administrative center.

       

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