Abstract:
Based on land use/cover data for the years of 2000, 2010, and 2020, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving forces of land use in Anshan City during 2000-2020 and predicts the land use pattern in 2040 by ways of land use dynamic degree, geo-information maps, chord diagram visualization and PLUS model. The results show that the area of cultivated land continuously decreased, with a total reduction of 496.10 km
2 during 2000-2020, primarily converted to forest, construction and grass lands. Forest land increased 410.86 km
2 during the same period, mainly transferred from cultivated and grass lands. The most significant land use change in recent 20 years behaves as cultivated land → forest land and cultivated land → construction land, with the former predominantly distributed in the southeastern Haicheng City and Qianshan District, and the latter concentrated in Qianshan District, central Haicheng City, and central Tai'an County. Since 2000, the land use change rate has showed a fast-slow temporal pattern, with a comprehensive land use dynamic degree of 1.29% in the first decade and 2.84% in the second decade. In terms of single land type, construction land shows the fastest growth rate at 0.87% annually, while cultivated land experiences the most rapid decline at 0.60% per year over the 20-year span. The simulation prediction results indicate further reduction of cultivated land in Anshan City by 2040 due to the main driving factors of elevation, precipitation and temperature, followed by socioeconomic factors including population, GDP, and distances from railways and local administrative center.