基于耦合模型的河南省南召县地质灾害易发性评价

    Assessment of geological hazard susceptibility based on coupled models for Nanzhao County, Henan Province

    • 摘要: 南召县地处河南省西南部山区南阳盆地边缘,地质灾害极易发生.地质灾害易发性评价分区对当地政府减灾、防灾、控灾提供目标靶区,具有重大意义.依据2021年度南召县地质灾害调查点和遥感解译点样本数据,选取地形地貌、基础地质、地表覆被和水文环境4类指标因子的13项评价因子,运用信息量+Logistic二元回归、证据权权重+Logistic二元回归及信息量+证据权+Logistic综合评价3种组合模型分别对南召县地质灾害易发性进行建模评价分区,同时运用ROC曲线对3组模型进行精度验证.最终分析得出信息量+证据权+Logistic综合耦合模型评价精度最高,推荐应用.

       

      Abstract: Nanzhao County, located in the mountainous southwestern region of Henan Province at the edge of Nanyang Basin, is highly prone to geological hazards. A susceptibility assessment and zoning for these hazards is significantly important to provide targeted areas for local government's efforts in disaster mitigation, prevention, and control. Based on sample data from geological hazard investigation sites and remote sensing interpretation points within Nanzhao County for 2021, this study selected 13 evaluation factors categorized into four indicator types: terrain, fundamental geology, surface cover, and hydrological environment. Three combined models were employed to model, assess, and zone the geological hazard susceptibility: Information Value(Ⅳ) + Logistic Binary Regression, Weight of Evidence (WoE) + Logistic Binary Regression, and an Ⅳ+WoE+Logistic coupled model. The accuracy of the three model sets was validated by Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC) curves. The final analysis indicates that the comprehensive Ⅳ+WoE+Logistic coupled model achieved the highest evaluation accuracy and is therefore recommended for application.

       

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