基于机器学习的贵州省地质灾害易发性评价

    Machine learning-based susceptibility assessment of geological hazards in Guizhou Province

    • 摘要: 高精度的地质灾害易发性评价是部署防灾减灾工作和国土空间规划的关键. 本文旨在通过耦合统计模型与机器学习模型的方法,提高贵州省地质灾害易发性评价结果的准确性. 选取工程地质岩组等15个评价因子建立易发性评价指标体系,利用证据权模型(WOE)、随机森林模型(RF)和证据权-随机森林耦合模型(WOE-RF)进行易发程度预测,对比分析模型评价准确性. 结果表明:RF模型和WOE-RF模型相较于WOE模型的预测精度显著提高,AUC值提高了24.32%~32.43%,中、高易发区涵盖已发生地质灾害的数量增加了14.5%;通过建立以输入特征为评价因子等级证据权值和非易发区选取非灾害样本的WOE-RF耦合模型,表现出的预测性能和泛化能力最好;贵州省地质灾害高易发区主要分布在西部和西北部,地形因素和地层岩性对地质灾害发育具有主导作用. 研究成果可为提高区域易发性评价精度提供参考.

       

      Abstract: High-precision assessment of geological hazard susceptibility is crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation initiatives as well as land use planning. This study aims to enhance the accuracy of geological hazard susceptibility assessments in Guizhou Province by integrating a statistical modeling approach with machine learning technique. An evaluation index system was constructed with 15 impact factors, including engineering geological rock formations and others. Susceptibility levels were predicted by the models of weights of evidence(WOE), random forest(RF), and coupled WOE-RF, whose accuracies were systematically evaluated and compared. The results indicate a significant improvement in the predictive precision of both the RF and WOE-RF models compared to the WOE model alone:The AUC value increased by 24.32%-32.43%, and the number of registered geological hazards captured within the moderate- and high-susceptibility zones rose by 14.5%. The coupled WOE-RF model, which utilizes the WOE values of input feature classes as predictors and selects non-hazard samples from non-susceptible zones, demonstrated the best predictive performance and generalization capability. High-susceptibility zones in Guizhou Province are predominantly located in the western and northwestern regions, where topographic factors and stratigraphic lithology exert a dominant control on hazard development. The findings may provide a valuable reference for enhancing the precision of regional susceptibility assessments.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回