基于信息量-机器学习耦合的湖南省衡阳市泥石流易发性研究

    Susceptibility of debris flow disaster in Hengyang City of Hunan Province based on information value-machine learning coupling model

    • 摘要: 以湖南省衡阳市为研究区,通过相关性分析并结合地理探测器进行评价因子筛选,用保留的8个评价因子建立信息量模型(IV),再分别与随机森林算法(RF)及轻量级梯度提升机算法(LightGBM)建立耦合模型(RF-IV、LightGBM-IV),将IV、RF、LightGBM、RF-IV、LightGBM-IV五种评价模型进行对比. ROC曲线图结果表明,RF-IV模型(AUC=0.930)相较于LightGBM-IV (AUC=0.869)、RF (AUC=0.830)、LightGBM (AUC=0.761)、IV (AUC=0.733),其预测准确率最高. 通过比对模型评价结果与历史泥石流灾害点密度分布数据,发现高易发区和极高易发区面积占总面积的63.33%. 评价结果与实际泥石流灾害分布情况基本一致,可为后续泥石流易发性研究提供参照,也可为衡阳市泥石流灾害防治监测提供参考依据.

       

      Abstract: Taking Hengyang City of Hunan Province as the study area, and selecting the evaluation factors through correlation analysis combined with geographic detector, this paper establishes information value(IV) model with 8 evaluation factors, then constructs the coupling models with random forest(RF) algorithm and light gradient boosting machine(LightGBM) algorithm, respectively, and finally compares the five evaluation models of IV, RF, LightGBM, RF-IV and LightGBM-IV with one another. The ROC curves show that RF-IV model has the highest prediction accuracy compared with the other four models. By comparing the evaluation results of the model with the density distribution data of historical debris flow disaster sites, it is found that the area of high and extremely high susceptible areas accounts for 63.33% of the total. The evaluation results are basically consistent with the actual distribution of debris flow disasters, which can provide reference for subsequent study of debris flow susceptibility as well as prevention and monitoring of debris flow disasters in Hengyang City.

       

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