FARMLAND DYNAMIC CHANGE AND ITS DRIVING FORCE ANALYSIS IN GLOBAL BLACK SOIL REGIONS BASED ON LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL

According to the Soil Taxonomy, the black soil in the world is generally divided into four large tracts. To explore the change rule and driving mechanism of farmland use in the black soil regions, the dynamic change characteristics of farmland in global black soil regions during the past 14 years are analyzed based on the remote sensing monitoring data of land use during three stages of 2005-2010, 2010-2015 and 2015-2019 with GIS and mathematical statistics software. Besides, physical geographical and social factors are selected as independent variables and land change dichotomy of increase and decrease as dependent variables to explore the driving factors of farmland change in the study area. The results show that the farmland change is significant with a trend of slight increase-sharp decrease-slight increase during the above three stages. A total of 58.77×10⁴ km² of farmland has decreased in 14 years, of which the black soil region of Asia has the largest reduction, accounting for 31.70%, with 76.04% of the reduced farmland converted to unused land. The established Logistic regression analysis model of farmland change proves to be effective and shows that the main driving factors are distance to the nearest road, precipitation and digital elevation model (DEM) in the first stage (2005-2010), distance to the nearest river and DEM in the second stage (2010-2015) and distance to the nearest road and temperature in the third stage (2015-2019).