LAND USE CHANGES AND SIMULATION PREDICTION IN DALING RIVER BASIN BASED ON CA-MARKOV MODEL

According to the land use data of Daling River Basin in 2000, 2010 and 2020, the land use dynamic degree, land use degree and land use transfer matrix are adapted to analyze the change rule of land use in the area in the past 20 years, and the land use patterns in 2030 are simulated and predicted based on the CA-Markov model. The results show that the cultivated land and grassland are dominated during 2000-2020, accounting for over 80% of the total land use in Daling River Basin. In the past 20 years, the area of forest land, grassland and construction land have been continuously increasing, while the area of farm land has been decreasing, and the rate of decline is accelerating, with the decrease of 132.85 and 1360.13 km² respectively in the first and second decades. The dynamic degree of comprehensive land use reduces from 43.53% to 10.36%, showing a decreasing trend. The dynamic degree of construction land increases from 0.11% to 4.99%, and that of wetland changes from 86.32% to -7.22%. The comprehensive index of land use degree changes from 262.53 to 259.91, indicating that the land in Daling River Basin is in decline in recent 20 years. The land use patterns of the area in 2030 are predicted based on CA-Markov model, with the simulation accuracy Kappa coefficient of 0.8835. The prediction results reveal that the farm land will further decrease by 1699.92 km² in 2030, mainly changing into grassland, construction land and forest land.