RISK ASSESSMENT OF KARST GROUNDWATER DEVELOPMENT AND UTILIZATION IN THE SINAN SECTION OF WUJIANG RIVER BASED ON CATASTROPHE THEORY

The reserve and utilization of water resources greatly affect the social development. Despite the abundant karst groundwater resources in the Sinan section of Wujiang River, the utilization rate is low for its deep burial. Due to sudden extreme dry weather and increasing industrial pollution, the karst groundwater resources available in the region face severe challenges. Focusing on the problem of groundwater development and utilization risk, the study establishes the groundwater development and utilization risk evaluation index system on the basis of catastrophe theory. According to the regional natural background conditions, groundwater development status and socioeconomic development, the study area is divided into 8 water resources evaluation sub-zones, and a three-level index evaluation system including target layer, criterion layer(7 indicators) and index layer(13 indicators) is set up, with a five-grade comprehensive evaluation method to assess the risk of groundwater development and utilization. The results show that the comprehensive risk values of groundwater resources development and utilization range from 0.8345 to 0.9271, in medium-severe risk. The risk ranking of each sub-zone is as follows: Ⅳ < Ⅰ₁ < Ⅶ < Ⅱ < Ⅵ < Ⅰ₂ < Ⅴ < Ⅲ. The evaluation results can provide theoretical basis for sustainable development and utilization of regional groundwater.